Indonesia's FIFA Ranking Rises, But Expert Says Big Homework Remains

Indonesia's FIFA ranking has risen significantly over the past three years, from 149th to 118th. However, observers believe that this is only a valuable asset, as reaching the top 100 worldwide still requires much more homework. Since Erick Thohir took over as chairman of the Football Association of Indonesia (PSSI) in April 2026, the national team has made a leap in the rankings. The figure of 149 at the time he took office has improved to 118 according to the latest standings. But with just about 18 places separating them from the top 100, the pace of improvement is slowing, and pressure from growing fan expectations is mounting. According to statistical data, the ranking improvement has occurred under three head coaches. Shin Tae-yong helped Indonesia rise from 149th to 127th in about 21 months (from April 2026 to January 2026). Patrick Kluivert took over from January 2026 to October 2026, bringing the team to 122nd. John Herdman, who started in January 2026, has lifted the team to 118th after about 8 months. The rate of climbing is clearly slowing: from an average of 1.05 positions per month under Shin, to 0.56 under Kluivert, and now 0.5 under Herdman. Football expert Akmal Marhali said to the media that the 118th place is "important capital" but still leaves "much homework." He stated that to enter the top 100, Indonesia needs to maintain momentum through high-quality matches and a consistent development strategy. The fact is that the FIFA ranking is not a pure measure of professional quality. It reflects match results, weighted by competition importance, opponent strength, and regional strength. Indonesia's rapid rise in the early period was mostly due to beating weaker opponents in Southeast Asia. As they move up, the points earned from beating weak teams diminish, and further progress requires defeating stronger teams, such as Iraq, Uzbekistan, or Bahrain – all currently outside the top 100. This explains why the slowdown in ranking momentum is normal, but it also highlights the challenges ahead. Indonesia cannot rely solely on beating Singapore or Bangladesh to accumulate points. They need to cause upsets against West Asian or Central Asian teams, which requires superior mental strength and quality. However, an important point that the ranking equation cannot show: the quality of performance. No xG (expected goals), PPDA (pressing index), or possession stats have been provided in recent reports. Indonesia might win narrowly against weak opponents but be completely outclassed against strong ones. If that happens, the high ranking would create an illusion of real strength. Moreover, the constant change of three coaches in three years raises questions about tactical identity. Shin Tae-yong is known for organized pressing and promoting young players. Kluivert brought Dutch-style possession principles. Herdman is known for a structured, data-driven approach. Each has a different philosophy, with no clear succession, risking a lack of cohesion between old and new players. The gap between Kluivert's departure (October 2026) and Herdman's appointment (January 2026) also created an unstable transitional phase. During those months, Indonesia likely played under caretaker management, making player selection and tactical execution cautious. This affects the team's rhythm and confidence. Another equally important issue is the over-reliance on naturalized players. To compete in Asia, PSSI has spent significant funds to bring players of Indonesian descent from Europe into the national team. The current squad includes many players plying their trade in second-tier leagues in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark. This strategy immediately improves squad quality, but how sustainable is it? When this naturalized generation ages out, will Indonesian football have a ready-made successor from its own youth academies? The answer is currently a big question mark. Indonesia's youth training infrastructure has historically been considered weak compared to Vietnam or Thailand. Shin Tae-yong's use of young players improved things somewhat, but the academy system has not truly evolved to provide a sustainable supply. On the commercial side, the FIFA ranking rise brings indirect benefits. A high ranking gives Indonesia better seeding in Asian competitions, increases media appeal for home matches, and attracts sponsors. Erick Thohir, a former Inter Milan president, understands this well. He uses the ranking as a public key performance indicator for his tenure – a double-edged sword, providing accountability while potentially pressuring the federation to pick friendlier opponents to preserve points rather than face real challenges. The current context shows Indonesia is in a better regional position. Vietnam's failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup and inconsistent results in ASEAN have left a vacuum, and Indonesia is gradually filling it. If they maintain form, they may overtake both Vietnam and Thailand in the FIFA rankings, becoming the number-one team in Southeast Asia. But that is only part of the picture. Indonesian fans are famously passionate yet also demanding. A cautious optimism currently surrounds the atmosphere. Fans know the team is on the right track, but they also understand that reaching the top 100 is not easy. Akmal Marhali's voice represents this sentiment: acknowledging efforts while reminding that there is a long road ahead. All eyes will be on the 2026 ASEAN Championship (ASEAN Cup), scheduled for late September and early October in Jakarta and Bandung. Indonesia are in the same group as Malaysia, Singapore, and Bangladesh. India's withdrawal makes the group easier, but also removes a valuable points opportunity. Malaysia, with heavy investment in naturalized players, is the most formidable opponent. Any poor result against the Malaysians would be a heavy blow to the top-100 ambition. The current Indonesian team still has plenty of work to do tactically. They need to build a clear style of play, applied consistently from youth levels to the senior team. They need to reduce dependence on naturalized individuals while improving the quality of local players. They need a long-term plan for friendly matches, choosing stronger opponents to challenge themselves rather than picking easy teams that offer no development value. The question is: is Indonesia willing to face much stronger teams before major tournaments? Organizing friendlies against strong opponents may result in losses, but it is the only way to upgrade. Developed Asian nations like Japan and South Korea constantly seek top European opponents to test themselves. They accept defeats to learn. Indonesia cannot simply cling to a high regional ranking. A blind spot rarely mentioned by the media is the absence of tactical statistical data in reports about the team. The ranking may rise, but pressing quality, passing ability, and defensive organization have not been verified through data. If Indonesia is not actually playing better but simply relying on luck or weak opponents, they will soon be exposed when meeting stronger teams. Conversely, if they are performing better than the ranking suggests, reaching the top 100 might come sooner than expected. But to know this, one must watch matches directly, analyze in detail, not just stop at numbers. The challenge for Indonesian football is not just ranking, but sustainable development. They need a strong youth training system, a quality top division (Liga 1), and leadership stability. Erick Thohir's leadership brought resources and professionalism, but short-term results cannot replace building long-term foundations. Looking back, Indonesia was suspended by FIFA in 2026 due to government interference. That was a significant scar. But now Indonesia is hosting an official FIFA tournament, showing that trust has been rebuilt. If they continue on the right path, they could gain not only a higher ranking but also a better standing in the Asian football community. In summary, Indonesia's 118th place in the FIFA rankings is an undeniable success, especially compared to the volatile past. But as expert Akmal Marhali said, it is only capital, a starting point. The homework remains substantial: stabilizing tactics, enhancing real strength, developing young players, and proving that the ranking is not a result of luck. The upcoming ASEAN Cup will be the first crucial test. If they pass, Indonesia can continue dreaming of a World Cup appearance in the near future. If not, those warnings will become reality. And the fans, with their passionate hearts, are always there to remind everyone that football is more than just a ranking.