The January Transfer Market: The Forgotten Ones and the Deals That Truly Matter

A December night in Hai Phong, sea wind sweeping along the empty stands of Lach Tray. I stayed behind alone after a recording session, rewinding an old tape shot in the dressing room of a young player packing his boots. The sound of studs on tile, a zip, a sigh from the corridor. Then my phone buzzed, and the screen lit up with transfer lines from Europe.

Federico Chiesa, 28, is preparing to leave Anfield in the January window. Three Serie A clubs — Inter Milan, Lazio and Atalanta — are reported to be watching him. A forward once seen as the heir to a whole generation now sits on a Premier League bench, counting the minutes he gets on the pitch.

I do not read this to learn where Chiesa will go. I read it to hear a familiar sound: the boots of a man about to walk through a door he once thought he would never have to open again. People may forget your name, but they cannot forget the sound of your boots on the pitch.

Context: an auction house called branding

The January window is always described as an arms race. Manchester City have Erling Haaland, 26, in their squad. Arsenal, according to Teamtalk, have enough money to sign him if he leaves the Etihad. But the same outlet admits something interesting: if Haaland leaves, Barcelona is a likelier destination than the Gunners.

Elsewhere in Europe, Barcelona are holding on to Dani Olmo, 28, a player linked with Arsenal, Chelsea and clubs in the Saudi Pro League. Olmo's answer is clear: he does not want to leave. A star turning down a lucrative deal to stay — that sounds odd in a market where everyone says money rules. But if you have followed Olmo's registration saga at Barcelona, you understand: there are things he is chasing that money cannot buy.

Then there is Pep Guardiola. The former Manchester City manager plans to attend his old club's Champions League game with Paris Saint-Germain on 14 October, as a show of support for a club in trouble. A man who left still comes back to sit in the stands. No contract can buy that.

I look at these four stories — Chiesa, Haaland, Olmo, Guardiola — and see they belong to the same tier. The branding tier. Here a player's value is measured in shirts sold, in TV viewers, in how often a club's name is mentioned on the news. This is where every data point is polished and every rumour can be sold.

The core: where the money actually flows

But the transfer market has two tiers, and few people see the second.

Start with Michael Kayode, the Brentford right-back Juventus are watching. Kayode came from Fiorentina, part of the generation born in 2026. He is not yet the name that makes you stop mid-bulletin. But Juventus — a club rebuilding — are looking at him. In football, what does that mean? It means a big club is trying to buy a young defender, still cheap, with a long runway, from a mid-table side. This is the kind of deal nobody makes a clip about, nobody counts views for. But it is the kind of deal that decides a club's next three seasons.

Then there is Nicolo Tresoldi, 22, a striker born in Italy but playing for Germany's Under-21s, impressing for Club Brugge. Barcelona are tracking him. I want to pause on this detail. One of Europe's biggest clubs is tracking a young striker playing in the Belgian league. This is not a sensational story. It is a professional one. And people in the trade, like me, know that lines like these are where the market truly operates.

And then Gilberto Mora, 17, the attacking midfielder at Club Tijuana. According to Football Insider, if he leaves Mexico next year, he would prefer Real Madrid or Barcelona over Liverpool. Seventeen years old. I remember sitting at the fence of Lach Tray, watching a 21-year-old pack his boots after training, wondering where he would end up. The forgotten ones are not short of talent. They just lack someone willing to tell their story.

Based on my experience covering matches and transfer windows, I have noticed a pattern: the deals talked about most are rarely the ones that deliver the most value. One club can spend 100 million euros on an established name and get a disappointing season. Another can spend 8 million euros on a 20-year-old defender and get ten years of service.

There is one more detail I want to keep: Kaoru Mitoma, 29, the Japanese winger at Brighton, watched by Tottenham and Liverpool for a January move. The notable part is not the two big names. It is that Mitoma's contract expires next summer. When a player enters the final year of a deal, his market value follows a very different curve. Brighton know it. Tottenham know it. And that is exactly why this is the deal worth following.

The counter-intuitive angle: a misunderstanding from outside

Fans often think the transfer window is a story about big stars. That is the easiest misunderstanding, and the most persistent.

When you read a line like Arsenal have enough money to sign Haaland, you are reading a story about branding, not about football. Arsenal may have the money. But the real question is not how much Arsenal have. The real question is: what does a 26-year-old forward, already a champion, already scoring in every competition, still have to gain by joining a club searching for itself? If Haaland leaves Manchester City, choosing Barcelona over Arsenal would be a decision about legacy, more than money.

And here is what the branding tier never tells you: the biggest deals are usually decided by the smallest reasons. Whether a city has sun. A wife who wants to be near family. A manager calling at eleven at night. The dressing room does not lie. It just stays quiet long enough for you to hear the truth.

Meanwhile, in the second tier, a club like Brentford work to a completely different logic. They do not try to buy stars. They try to buy the right player, at the right price, at the right time. When Juventus call about Kayode, Brentford do not look at Juventus's aura. They look at the years remaining on the player they already own.

I once wrote about a young midfielder who got only 47 minutes in the V.League before being pushed down to the First Division. Nobody called it big news. But stories like that are what show me how the market works: people do not buy a name. They buy the remaining time a person can give. Every transfer window is a farewell. Those who stay are quieter than those who leave.

The signal ahead

So if I have to pick one signal to follow this January, I will not pick Haaland. I will pick three smaller names.

Kayode comes first. If Juventus really make an offer, that will signal that big Serie A clubs are shifting to buying low-cost young defenders — a trend I believe will spread beyond Italy.

Tresoldi is next. A young striker in the Belgian league tracked by Barcelona is an indicator of how big clubs are expanding their scouting beyond the top five leagues.

And Mora is the third. A 17-year-old choosing between Real Madrid, Barcelona and Liverpool — that is a story about how the next generation defines success. For them, a club is not merely a place that pays wages. It is a place where they want to become themselves.

Moscow has snow, Hai Phong has sea wind. Football brings both into the same story. In that story, the name mentioned most is not necessarily the most important. I go to the pitch not to see who scores, but to see who stands up after a missed shot. Chiesa is standing up. The remaining question is whether anyone is still looking his way, now that the spotlight has moved to someone else.