Sabalenka's Throne Defense: 32 Winners, a Drop Shot, and the Weight of History

Arthur Ashe Stadium wasn't packed like in the later rounds this afternoon, but the air was thick. Aryna Sabalenka walked onto the court as the defending champion, the world No. 1, carrying a burden few in history have shouldered: the chance to become just the third player in the Open Era to win three consecutive US Open titles, after Chris Evert and Serena Williams. The opening match against Camila Osorio, a player outside the top 50, should have been a formality. But for someone who hasn't reached a single final since March, everything is a test. I sat in the corner stands, where I could clearly see the angles and movement patterns. The match ended in two sets, 6-4, 6-2, but the scoreline wasn't what interested me. It was the 32 winners in 18 games — an elite aggression rate on tour. But the bigger question, as I noted in my notebook: is this aggression a sign that peak form has returned, or just a performance against a clearly weaker opponent? Sabalenka is not a tactically diverse player. She is a power machine: a devastating serve, deep returns, and flat groundstrokes that give opponents no time to think. In this match, that motif was executed perfectly. The unreturnable backhand return on break point in the fifth game of the first set — a shot that was pure Sabalenka: no excessive running, no extended rally, just one decisive strike to end the point on her terms. The same happened in the final game, when she closed the match with an unreturnable serve, giving Osorio no chance to respond. But one detail made me pause. At one point in the second set, Sabalenka hit a drop shot that sent Osorio's racket flying from her hand in surprise. This is a small but notable signal. Throughout her career, her game has often been criticized for lacking variety — a single but extremely powerful weapon. The appearance of the drop shot, even just once, could be a sign that she's expanding her arsenal. Or it could just be an experiment in a match that was already decided. I'm not sure. But in a tournament where she'll need to beat at least two or three top-10 players to defend her title, having an additional tactical option is an advantage that can't be overlooked. Osorio's five double faults in the first set also said something. It's no coincidence that a lower-ranked player makes so many serving errors. The pressure from Sabalenka's deep, flat returns — which force opponents to stand deep and have no time to adjust their serving rhythm — created enormous psychological pressure. This is an often-overlooked aspect of her game: not just power, but a presence that weighs on opponents from the very first point. But I can't help questioning the true effectiveness of this performance. Osorio is an opponent outside the top 50. Beating her is mandatory, not an achievement to be praised. The real question lies in the second week, when Sabalenka might face players like Coco Gauff — who has home-court advantage and is in strong form — or Iga Swiatek, who has proven her ability to neutralize power with agility and court coverage. History shows that Sabalenka's power game can be neutralized by elite defenders who can extend rallies and force her to hit more balls, thereby creating more unforced errors. What truly interests me is how Sabalenka manages her emotions. Her post-match celebration was subdued — no screaming, no fist pumps. Just a slight nod and a walk to the net to shake hands. For a player known for living with her emotions on court, this calmness could be a sign of maturity — or a sign of someone trying to suppress anxiety. I lean toward the first reading. When you've won this tournament twice, you understand that the first round isn't the place to burn emotional energy. You need to save it for the matches that truly matter. The context of this match is much bigger than a simple opening round. Sabalenka is defending 2,000 points from last year's title. She's defending her world No. 1 ranking against the threat of at least three players who could overtake her right at this tournament. And she's defending a legacy — the chance to stand alongside Serena Williams and Chris Evert in the record books. This is an enormous burden, and how she handles it will shape not just this tournament but the trajectory of her career in the coming years. There's something I've realized after years of watching elite sports: historic moments are usually not created by spectacular shots, but by how an athlete handles ordinary moments — the meaningless games, the mid-match points, the times when opponents make errors. Sabalenka passed the first test convincingly. But the road ahead is long, and each round will be a harder test. As I left Arthur Ashe Stadium this afternoon, I remembered a line I wrote after the 2026 World Cup final: "Modric doesn't run the fastest, but every step he takes has intention." Sabalenka is no Modric — she doesn't have the finesse or the reading ability of a genius midfielder. But she has something else: absolute power and intense focus. And in a tournament where anything can happen, that might be enough. Or it might not. We'll know in two weeks. An empty stadium doesn't just lack noise — it lacks the story being told. But this afternoon, Sabalenka's story is still being written. And it could be one of the greatest stories in modern women's tennis.